BTC-USD
Price history (daily)
Up dayDown day20-day average50-day average200-day average
The averages smooth out the daily noise. When price is above them and they slope up, the trend is up.
Plain-language report
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Signal
Why — what's pushing the scoreNo clear direction · Score 10.18
Trend strength (ADX): 1.00
Risk
6.00
Risk score
out of 10
| Volatility right now | Choppy |
| Daily swing (ATR %) | 2.737% |
| Volatility (30-day) | +48.85% |
| Likely bad day (VaR 95%) | -3.36% |
| Worst drop (1 year) | -52.97% |
| Likely bad day (calibrated) | -2.29% |
| Bound's track record | breached 6 of last 100 days |
| Behavior last shifted | Aug 22, 2026 |
On about 5 days out of 100, a one-day loss bigger than this is normal. It doesn't say how bad the worst days get — that's why we always show it next to the worst drop. How risk is calculated →
Did the signal actually work?
Beat buy-and-hold+30.20%Oct 17, 2025 – Sep 17, 2026 · 352 days
| Following the signal | +1.77% |
| Just holding | -28.43% |
| Difference | +30.20% |
| Return vs. risk (Sharpe) | 0.24 |
| Worst drop | -8.67% |
| Winning trades | +57.10% · 7 trades |
We include trading costs on every trade (Iran gold & coin spreads at 2.5%). We tune on the first 60% of history and only show results on the untouched last 40%. It's measured on limited data — not a promise either way.
News mood
-0.383115 headlines counted
Last 72 hours, recent news counts more.
Position-size helper
Latest indicators
| rsi_14 | 51.6455 |
| macd_hist | -724.29 |
| adx_14 | 41.0495 |
| atr_pct | 2.737 |
| ema_50 | 73,695 |
| ema_200 | 72,387 |
| bb_pct | 0.249349 |
| stoch_k | 17.2223 |