XAU-USD
Price history (daily)
The averages smooth out the daily noise. When price is above them and they slope up, the trend is up.
Plain-language report
We're gathering the latest data and an AI model is writing the plain-language analysis. This can take up to a minute the first time — after that it's saved and loads instantly.
Signal
What we'd do
The odds lean down over this period.
This call has no proven track record on this asset yet — we're showing it, but don't lean on it.
| Chance it goes up | 46% |
| Chance needed to cover costs | 78.9% |
| Margin over costs | -32.9% |
| Cost each way | 0.1% |
Not enough history yet to correct the model's confidence, so this is its raw number.
The odds lean slightly up, but not enough to pay for buying and selling. Waiting costs you nothing.
This call has no proven track record on this asset yet — we're showing it, but don't lean on it.
| Chance it goes up | 50% |
| Chance needed to cover costs | 63.8% |
| Margin over costs | -13.3% |
| Cost each way | 0.1% |
Not enough history yet to correct the model's confidence, so this is its raw number.
If you'd followed us
The practice portfolio hasn't started on this asset yet.
What might happen next
Not enough forecasts have been checked yet to say whether this is any better than guessing. Treat it as unproven.
| Likely range (80% of the time) | 3,783 – 3,809 USD |
| Chance needed to cover costs | 78.9% |
| Cost each way | 0.1% |
| Better than a simple guess by | -2.8% |
| Range was right | 95% (aiming for 80%) |
| Forecasts checked so far | 20 |
Not enough forecasts have been checked yet to say whether this is any better than guessing. Treat it as unproven.
| Likely range (80% of the time) | 3,770 – 3,825 USD |
| Chance needed to cover costs | 63.8% |
| Cost each way | 0.1% |
| Better than a simple guess by | -4% |
| Range was right | 65% (aiming for 80%) |
| Forecasts checked so far | 20 |
Risk
| Volatility right now | Choppy |
| Daily swing (ATR %) | 0.7713% |
| Volatility (30-day) | +5.86% |
| Likely bad day (VaR 95%) | -0.44% |
| Worst drop (1 year) | -8.50% |
| Likely bad day (calibrated) | -0.39% |
| Bound's track record | breached 8 of last 100 days |
| Behavior last shifted | Nov 15, 2026 |
On about 5 days out of 100, a one-day loss bigger than this is normal. It doesn't say how bad the worst days get — that's why we always show it next to the worst drop. How risk is calculated →
Did the signal actually work?
| Following the signal | -10.88% |
| Just holding | -12.22% |
| Difference | +1.34% |
| Return vs. risk (Sharpe) | -2.32 |
| Worst drop | -11.13% |
| Winning trades | +16.20% · 37 trades |
We include trading costs on every trade (Iran gold & coin spreads at 2.5%). We tune on the first 60% of history and only show results on the untouched last 40%. It's measured on limited data — not a promise either way.
News mood
News-mood scoring needs an AI model to be switched on. The prices, signals, and risk all work without it.
Position-size helper
Latest indicators
| rsi_14 | 45.5075 |
| macd_hist | 3.0999 |
| adx_14 | 42.4897 |
| atr_pct | 0.771311 |
| ema_50 | 3,843 |
| ema_200 | 3,935 |
| bb_pct | 0.625014 |
| stoch_k | 69.9984 |