XAU-USD
Price history (daily)
Up dayDown day20-day average50-day average200-day average
The averages smooth out the daily noise. When price is above them and they slope up, the trend is up.
Plain-language report
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Signal
Why — what's pushing the scoreNo clear direction · Score -3.09
Trend strength (ADX): 1.00
Risk
4.00
Risk score
out of 10
| Volatility right now | Choppy |
| Daily swing (ATR %) | 0.8175% |
| Volatility (30-day) | +6.18% |
| Likely bad day (VaR 95%) | -0.39% |
| Worst drop (1 year) | -4.97% |
| Likely bad day (calibrated) | -0.44% |
| Bound's track record | breached 16 of last 100 days |
| Behavior last shifted | Sep 16, 2026 |
On about 5 days out of 100, a one-day loss bigger than this is normal. It doesn't say how bad the worst days get — that's why we always show it next to the worst drop. How risk is calculated →
Did the signal actually work?
Beat buy-and-hold+1.31%Aug 22, 2026 – Sep 17, 2026 · 656 days
| Following the signal | -4.56% |
| Just holding | -5.87% |
| Difference | +1.31% |
| Return vs. risk (Sharpe) | -1.68 |
| Worst drop | -4.58% |
| Winning trades | +17.20% · 29 trades |
We include trading costs on every trade (Iran gold & coin spreads at 2.5%). We tune on the first 60% of history and only show results on the untouched last 40%. It's measured on limited data — not a promise either way.
News mood
-0.235117 headlines counted
Last 72 hours, recent news counts more.
Position-size helper
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| ema_200 | 4,337 |
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